Pick the Winners of the US Men’s National Championships

By Dall-E 3

Spreadsheet of selected Sr. scores of Nationals competitors.

(works best on desktop).

Let me know if you find any errors !

Let’s gamble…well, we actually can’t but men’s gymnastics would be way more popular if we could! Just bet someone a tub of stale gym-meet popcorn and see what happens.

If I were playing with real money I would take all of it and bet it on Brandon Dang to win pommel horse. If I had JUST had Tate Costa to win the high bar at the men’s NCAA Championships I would now be driving a Ferrari.

But I digress….

This one is going to be tricky as the big unknown is Brody Malone. He plans to do all six, and how he does will dramatically affect both the all-around championship picture and the prospective Olympic team.

I like to break this down by event. I went to my spreadsheet and looked at which gymnasts scored in the top 30 % of scores. That should include anyone who could win an event, or be chosen for the Olympic Team/get National Team points on an event. I used the total score. I included NCAA, with the knowledge the execution scores tend to be inflated relative to the others, and could include stick bonus in the D score. NCAA scores aren’t useless, one just has to be aware of their limitations. Paying close attention to NCAA scores in 2016 indicated Sam Mikulak had a real shot at the Olympic team that year.

All of the information is in the spreadsheet. people can make their own picks. I didn’t mention everyone possible, otherwise this would be 10 pages long.

And there are always surprises and stealth upgrades.

Lists are in order of highest score on the spreadsheet, but don’t take the order too seriously, as it was made with a mixture of NCAA, USAG, and international scores (and one always has to be careful when comparing scores from different meets).

Senior National Team Selection Procedures

National Championship and Olympic Trials Selection Procedures

Olympic Team Selection Procedures

Neutral Deductions Podcast on Selection Procedures

Floor

(Top 30 % range 14.8 - 14.166)

Paul Juda, Shane Wiskus, Fred Richard, Yul Moldauer, Taylor Christopulos, Josh Karnes, Eric Upton, Javier Alfonso, Landen Blixt, Colt Walker, Tate Costa, Jeremy Bischoff, Khoi Young, Asher Hong, Donnell Whittenburg.

The highest international score belongs to Fred Richard (Worlds AA 6/14.633), but it has been a few months, and he hasn’t managed to replicate that number in the NCAA (the closest was a 14.6 in a meet against Penn State in March). Yul Moldauer has a more recent international 14.55 from Pac Rims. Juda’s top scores are from the NCAA, but he has the difficulty and execution to compete for a top spot/represent the USA in Paris. Shane Wiskus hasn’t competed much this year, but he could be right up there.

The gymnasts with the most difficulty on floor (D score over 6) are Donnell Whittenburg and Asher Hong, but so far they haven’t had the execution to match.

Pommel Horse

(Top 30 % range 15.4 - 13.966)

Steven Nedoroscik, Patrick Hoopes, Khoi Young, Brandon Dang, Fred Richard, Cameron Bock, Yul Moldauer, Brody Malone, Paul Juda, Asher Hong, Fuzzy Benas.

This group is dominated by the specialists (Nedoroscik, Hoopes, Dang)…and Khoi Young. In this event, the gymnasts with the highest difficulty also tended to get the highest overall scores. Khoi Young is tied with Nedoroscik for the highest D score (6.6).

The top four are close in ability, so the winner will be mostly determined by luck.

When the specialists hit, they can bring in some huge scores (some of the only scores close to 15 or over), so it’s possible they could show up in some of the highest scoring team scenarios. That’s when the real gambling starts - taking a gymnast for pommel horse alone is a risky strategy, as even the best of them fall or make large errors on a regular basis. Also, concentrating a lot of risk on one event is like putting all of your investments in one stock. It’s great if it works out (sometimes it does), but if it doesn’t you could be in big trouble.

Still Rings

(Top 30 % range 15.15 - 13.966)

Asher Hong, Alex Diab, Brody Malone, Ian Gunther, Donnell Whittenburg, Javier Alfonso, Riley Loos, Fred Richard, Yul Moldauer, Fuzzy Benas, Josh Karnes, Colt Walker, Brody Malone, Paul Juda.

Rings is dominated by specialists (Diab, Alfonso) and all-around gymnasts with 6 + D scores (Hong, Whittenburg).

This could be a key event for Asher Hong, Yul Moldauer, and Donnell Whittenburg in their quest for Paris. I would say the US has the least depth on still rings and high bar. Those three are non-excellent on high bar, so rings is their chance to show how they can contribute.

If Brody Malone can get team final worthy scores on still rings and high bar, he’s got a great shot for Paris.

Vault

(Top 30 % range 15.266 - 14.6)

Asher Hong, Paul Juda, Khoi Young, Riley Loos, Taylor Christopulos, Landen Blixt, Shane Wiskus, Yul Moldauer, Fuzzy Benas, Riley Loos, Curran Phillips, Eric Upton, Taylor Burkhart, Cameron Bock

The top scores are dominated by Asher Hong, Khoi Young, and Paul Juda (even with his 5.2 vault).

Missing from the list is Donnell Whittenburg, but according to Neutral Deductions, he is planning to bring back the Ri Se Gwang vault (6.0 D score).

Parallel Bars

(Top 30 % range 16.1 - 14.466)

Curran Phillips, Yul Moldauer, Asher Hong, Josh Karnes, Brody Malone, Khoi Young, Shane Wiskus. Fred Richard, Colt Walker, Crew Bold, Fuzzy Benas, Cameron Bock, Dallas Hale

Curran Phillips dominates the field, leading with a 16.1 from day 2 of Winter Cup, the highest score on the list achieved by any athlete on any event. Phillips also has the highest D score (6.9) on any athlete on any event in the data set, and one of the highest in the world. The top 10 scores on the list are 6 by Phillips, 3 by Moldauer, and 1 by Hong.

High Bar

(Top 30 % range 14.7 - 13.666)

Curran Phillips, Fred Richard, Paul Juda, Shane Wiskus, Crew Bold, Taylor Christopulos, Jeremy Bischoff, Josh Karnes, Tate Costa, Riley Loos, Sam Phillips, Colt Walker.

The X factor will be 2022 World HB Medalist Brody Malone. This event could also be key for Fred Richard, Shane Wiskus, Paul Juda, and Curran Phillips. The only gymnast competing who has recorded a high bar start value over 6 this year is Fred Richard. He competed a 6.2 D score in Worlds TF 2023. For comparison, Brody Malone won his World medal with a D score of 6.3.

This event could put Curran Phillips on the Olympic team if he can combine a good score here with a top score on parallel bars and a good score on vault or floor (which he is planning to add per Neutral Deductions).

All-Around

(Top 30 % range 86.75 - 83.1)

Fred Richard, Khoi Young, Asher Hong, Paul Juda, Yul Moldauer, Shane Wiskus, Cameron Bock, Fuzzy Benas, Colt Walker, Josh Karnes, Riley Loos, Taylor Christopulos

Brody Malone could show up at the top or close to it if he returns to his past form.

Whittenburg just missed the cutoff, but I wouldn’t count him out, as he has enough difficult to score well if he hits.

The highest scores in the data set that did not come from the NCAA are an 85.3 from Yul Moldauer Day 2 of Winter Cup and an 84.85 from Shane Wiskus Day 1 of Winter Cup. The highest international score in the data set is that of Yul Moldauer with 84.6 from the PacRim AA. Fred Richard won the World AA bronze with a score of 84.332.

The highest AA difficulty in the data set belongs to Asher Hong with 35.4, followed by Yul Moldauer with 34.7. The only other gymnast in the data set with a total difficulty of 34 or over is Fred Richard.

Good Luck to all the athletes!